The residential market is making steady progress towards full recovery. The prices will rise moderately in the whole of the year, while sales transactions grow by 5% over the previous year, reaching close to 510,000 transactions .
This is the main conclusion of the report on the Residential & Local Investor Market prepared by Servihabitat Trends, the sector research and analysis platform promoted by Servihabitat.
” The forecast is that the sector will continue with the same positive trend , especially if the different factors that may continue to drive the market are taken into account. In this sense, a macroeconomic environment with good prospects or low interest rates are perceived as favorable. the mortgages , especially fixed term, which can help continue the active demand , “says Iheb Nafaa, CEO of Servihabitat.
For his part, Juan Carlos Álvarez, General Director of the Wealth Management Business at Servihabitat, affirms that investment in wealth “continues to offer interesting returns, with rates that stand at 7.6% , despite the slowdown in growth. evolution of the rental market compared to that of the sale, less affected by the health crisis “.
The positive economic outlook and the arrival of European funds, among other factors, point to a forecast of improvement in macroeconomic projections for Spain, reaching levels prior to Covid-19 in 2022 , earlier than expected, despite the fact that the recovery did not it is exempt from high uncertainty. Thus, GDP growth of 6.4% is expected in 2021, one of the highest in the entire European Union.
Consumer confidence also shows an upward trend, exceeding the data obtained at the end of 2019 by more than 13 points.
This is also confirmed by 85% of the Servihabitat Network of Collaborating Agents (APIs), who believe that purchase and sale operations will continue or even rise, a more optimistic view than six months ago, when only 56% of collaborators shared this trend forecast. For their part, mortgages do not follow the same rhythm, given that there is more liquidity in the market and, in addition, entities grant mortgage loans at a more prudent pace .
Moderate rise in prices
As for prices, experts expect it to evolve in a stabilization scenario, with a moderate increase of 1.4% at the end of the year. By type, the new construction, despite having presented a better evolution in recent months, will experience contained price adjustments, thus showing a much more stable outlook.
Thus, in annual rates, the differences between new and second-hand homes will be less marked than last year, showing a certain harmony.
The moderate boom cycle experienced by housing starts in recent years has been interrupted and housing will develop below pre-pandemic levels. Thus, the start-up of new projects could remain 5% below the 2020 data due to uncertainty and financial demands that generate a much more prudent stance on the part of the promoter.
For its part, the completion and delivery of work will be maintained or even increased compared to recent years, with a forecast of about 84,000 homes completed in 2021.
Regarding the preferences according to typologies and locations, the open spaces, larger and located far from the center, gain interest for the demand, as indicated by the Network of collaborating agents (APIs) of Servihabitat. The rental market, especially sensitive to the evolution of the pandemic The rental demand shows a slight drop, showing a special sensitivity to the evolution of the pandemic, especially in large cities.
The number of homes that are rented is around 19% on an annual average, a figure close to that of 2019. By type of housing and location, spaces open to the outside continue to be prioritized and interest in renting is growing outside the most central areas, according to the opinion of the Servihabitat Network of Collaborating Agents (APIs).
The rental price shows a decrease in the annual variation rates since the beginning of the year, after the resistance shown in 2020, when it experienced a moderation trend. This is due to the drop in demand and the increase in supply, also conditioned by tourist restrictions.
Real estate remains one of the most stable and profitable products in the last decade, presenting a great attraction for investors. It offers returns of 7.6% if the revaluation of the property is added to the average profitability generated by the rental . In addition, although the situation of stock markets has improved, it is expected that there will continue to be volatility in the markets in the coming months.
Regarding the investor profile, about 74% of the operations are carried out by small investors, growing almost 5 percentage points compared to a year ago. In addition, in the last year, the average ticket per operation is mainly concentrated in the range of less than 200,000 euros .